Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has a bigger chance of becoming the next President of the United States than Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump, according to PredictIt, a real money political prediction market.
PredictIt allows users to forecast the result of future events such as the presidential election by betting small amounts of money on “yes” or “no” answer to a question such as “Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election?”
Who will win the presidential election in November is a question on many peoples’ minds. Hillary Clinton’s probability to winning the presidential election in November was 61¢ or 61% compared to Trump’s 41 ¢ or 41% as of today, May 6 based on data available on the online political prediction market.
Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party after winning the primary in Indiana, which prompted his rivals Sen. Ted Cruz and Governor John Kasich to drop out.
Sanders predicts a contested convention
Clinton is still running against Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary race. The Vermont Senator recently predicted a contested convention based on his belief that the former Secretary of State would not win enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination of the Democratic Party.
Hillary Clinton “will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia. In other words, it will be a contested convention,” said Sen. Sanders during a recent speech at the National Press Club in Washington DC.
Under the rules of the Democratic Party, a candidate must win 2,383 delegates to become the nominee. Currently, Clinton has 2,205 delegates including 522 superdelegates while Sanders has 1,401 delegates including 39 superdelegates. There are still 933 delegates up for grabs in the remaining primaries.
Hillary Clinton still needs to win 700 delegates (excluding superdelegates) to win the nomination. Including the superdelegates, she only needs 178 delegates. Take note that the superdelegates are not yet locked in to the candidates until they cast their votes during the Democratic convention in July.
Sen. Sanders is targeting superdelegates to switch to his side. According to him, “If I win a state with 70 percent of the vote, you know what? I think I am entitled to those superdelegates.”
Hillary Clinton reaches out to disappointed Republican leaders
Meanwhile, Clinton’s campaign is also actively reaching out to influential Republican leaders who were disappointed with Trump.
According to the New York Times, the efforts of Hillary Clinton campaign started when House Speaker Paul Ryan stated that he was “just not ready” to support the Republican presumptive nominee. They are also appealing to independents and Republican-leaning white voters, who were dismayed by Trump’s campaign strategy and policy proposals.
In a recent interview with CNN, Clinton said, “I invite a lot of Republicans and independents who, I’ve been seeing on the campaign trail, who’ve been reaching out to me, I invite them to join with Democrats. Let’s get off the red or the blue team. Let’s get on the American team.”
